{
 "title": "Weekly calls, The Durability Curve",
 "url": "https://durabilitycurve.com/calls/",
 "license": "CC BY 4.0 · https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
 "schema_version": "1",
 "generated": "2026-10-10",
 "grading": "A call resolves TRUE or FALSE on its date (or event). Calibration is scored across all resolved calls: for each confidence band, the share that came true should roughly match the band (the 60–70% calls should come true about 65% of the time). Report the Brier score alongside, once ≥10 calls have resolved. Misses are printed in the issue that grades them.",
 "issues": [
  {
   "issue": 1,
   "date": "2026-09-26",
   "url": "https://harryfloyd.substack.com/p/amazon-shut-out-metas-agent"
  },
  {
   "issue": 2,
   "date": "2026-10-03",
   "url": "https://harryfloyd.substack.com/p/openai-apologised-to-australia"
  },
  {
   "issue": 3,
   "date": "2026-10-10",
   "url": "https://harryfloyd.substack.com/p/openai-fired-three-safety-researchers"
  }
 ],
 "calls": [
  {
   "id": "W01-1",
   "issue": 1,
   "issueDate": "2026-09-26",
   "issueUrl": "https://harryfloyd.substack.com/p/amazon-shut-out-metas-agent",
   "story": "Agent checkout",
   "call": "By 31 March 2027, another of the ten largest US online retailers will announce a new block on an AI shopping agent, or new rules requiring agents to identify themselves. Rules already in place, such as eBay's ban on buy-for-me agents, don't count.",
   "resolves": "2027-03-31",
   "deadline": "2027-03-31",
   "confidence": 0.6,
   "outcome": null,
   "gradedIn": null,
   "status": "open"
  },
  {
   "id": "W01-2",
   "issue": 1,
   "issueDate": "2026-09-26",
   "issueUrl": "https://harryfloyd.substack.com/p/amazon-shut-out-metas-agent",
   "story": "Agent disclosure",
   "call": "Australia's AI standards bill, when it is published, will set a deadline for AI companies to report incidents in which their systems get into computer systems without permission. If no bill is published by 30 June 2027, the call fails.",
   "resolves": "bill publication, or 2027-06-30",
   "deadline": "2027-06-30",
   "confidence": 0.55,
   "outcome": null,
   "gradedIn": null,
   "status": "open"
  },
  {
   "id": "W01-3",
   "issue": 1,
   "issueDate": "2026-09-26",
   "issueUrl": "https://harryfloyd.substack.com/p/amazon-shut-out-metas-agent",
   "story": "Supplier warrants",
   "call": "Between now and 31 March 2027, at least five more US-listed suppliers will disclose a warrant like these, issued to a customer in connection with chip, cloud or data-centre purchases.",
   "resolves": "2027-03-31",
   "deadline": "2027-03-31",
   "confidence": 0.7,
   "outcome": null,
   "gradedIn": null,
   "status": "open"
  },
  {
   "id": "W01-4",
   "issue": 1,
   "issueDate": "2026-09-26",
   "issueUrl": "https://harryfloyd.substack.com/p/amazon-shut-out-metas-agent",
   "story": "Reading preferences",
   "call": "By 30 September 2027, an independent study where real money changes hands will find the same split, with misreading people's preferences costing more than the trading itself.",
   "resolves": "2027-09-30",
   "deadline": "2027-09-30",
   "confidence": 0.35,
   "outcome": null,
   "gradedIn": null,
   "status": "open"
  },
  {
   "id": "W01-5",
   "issue": 1,
   "issueDate": "2026-09-26",
   "issueUrl": "https://harryfloyd.substack.com/p/amazon-shut-out-metas-agent",
   "story": "Price floor",
   "call": "By 30 September 2027, neither lab will raise the list price of Opus 5.5 or GPT-6 Sol, or release a new Opus or Sol model at a higher input or output price per token.",
   "resolves": "2027-09-30",
   "deadline": "2027-09-30",
   "confidence": 0.75,
   "outcome": null,
   "gradedIn": null,
   "status": "open"
  },
  {
   "id": "W01-6",
   "issue": 1,
   "issueDate": "2026-09-26",
   "issueUrl": "https://harryfloyd.substack.com/p/amazon-shut-out-metas-agent",
   "story": "Watermarks",
   "call": "By 30 June 2027, anyone will be able to check a piece of text for Claude's watermark.",
   "resolves": "2027-06-30",
   "deadline": "2027-06-30",
   "confidence": 0.4,
   "outcome": null,
   "gradedIn": null,
   "status": "open"
  },
  {
   "id": "W02-1",
   "issue": 2,
   "issueDate": "2026-10-03",
   "issueUrl": "https://harryfloyd.substack.com/p/openai-apologised-to-australia",
   "story": "Disclosure deadline",
   "call": "by 31 December 2026, OpenAI's Australian taskforce will publish recommendations that set a maximum time, in hours or days, between a lab finding unauthorised access to a government system and telling that government. A word like \"promptly\" won't count, and if it publishes nothing by then, the call fails.",
   "resolves": "2026-12-31",
   "deadline": "2026-12-31",
   "confidence": 0.3,
   "outcome": null,
   "gradedIn": null,
   "status": "open"
  },
  {
   "id": "W02-2",
   "issue": 2,
   "issueDate": "2026-10-03",
   "issueUrl": "https://harryfloyd.substack.com/p/openai-apologised-to-australia",
   "story": "Argon for everyone",
   "call": "by 31 March 2027, any paying API customer will be able to use Argon, or a renamed Gemini 4 successor, without joining Fairwind. Google has already published a price. Against that, it is still tuning Argon's guardrails, and Anthropic's newest Mythos model is still invitation-only. Six months is a fair test of \"as soon as possible\".",
   "resolves": "2027-03-31",
   "deadline": "2027-03-31",
   "confidence": 0.55,
   "outcome": null,
   "gradedIn": null,
   "status": "open"
  },
  {
   "id": "W02-3",
   "issue": 2,
   "issueDate": "2026-10-03",
   "issueUrl": "https://harryfloyd.substack.com/p/openai-apologised-to-australia",
   "story": "Open-model gap",
   "call": "by 30 June 2027, NIST's AI evaluation centre (CAISI, now renamed CAISSI) will publish an assessment that puts a freely downloadable model within two months of the best US model on its overall cyber measure.",
   "resolves": "2027-06-30",
   "deadline": "2027-06-30",
   "confidence": 0.3,
   "outcome": null,
   "gradedIn": null,
   "status": "open"
  },
  {
   "id": "W02-4",
   "issue": 2,
   "issueDate": "2026-10-03",
   "issueUrl": "https://harryfloyd.substack.com/p/openai-apologised-to-australia",
   "story": "FTC filing",
   "call": "by 30 June 2027, a public FTC or federal court filing arising from this investigation will name OpenAI or Anthropic.",
   "resolves": "2027-06-30",
   "deadline": "2027-06-30",
   "confidence": 0.2,
   "outcome": null,
   "gradedIn": null,
   "status": "open"
  },
  {
   "id": "W02-5",
   "issue": 2,
   "issueDate": "2026-10-03",
   "issueUrl": "https://harryfloyd.substack.com/p/openai-apologised-to-australia",
   "story": "Memory deposits",
   "call": "by 31 March 2027, another US-listed memory or storage maker will report at least $5 billion of customer advances and refundable deposits on its balance sheet. Sandisk had about $2.7 billion in July.",
   "resolves": "2027-03-31",
   "deadline": "2027-03-31",
   "confidence": 0.65,
   "outcome": null,
   "gradedIn": null,
   "status": "open"
  },
  {
   "id": "W02-6",
   "issue": 2,
   "issueDate": "2026-10-03",
   "issueUrl": "https://harryfloyd.substack.com/p/openai-apologised-to-australia",
   "story": "Biology watermark",
   "call": "by 30 September 2027, at least one commercial DNA synthesis company will announce that it accepts or prefers SynthID Bio, or an equivalent lab-tested watermark for AI-designed biology, in its screening of orders. Twist Bioscience, a DNA maker, called watermarking \"a promising new addition to the biosecurity toolbox\" on DeepMind's launch page, but a quote there doesn't count.",
   "resolves": "2027-09-30",
   "deadline": "2027-09-30",
   "confidence": 0.25,
   "outcome": null,
   "gradedIn": null,
   "status": "open"
  },
  {
   "id": "W03-1",
   "issue": 3,
   "issueDate": "2026-10-10",
   "issueUrl": "https://harryfloyd.substack.com/p/openai-fired-three-safety-researchers",
   "story": "Outsiders inside OpenAI",
   "call": "by 31 March 2027, OpenAI will announce an agreement giving a named outside organisation ongoing access inside the company to evaluate its models while they are being trained. Talks won't count, and nor will tests of one model before its release, like those the UK and US institutes already run. Anthropic took six days. Four weeks on, OpenAI says it is finalising contracts. It has named no partner, and the details are still to come.",
   "resolves": "2027-03-31",
   "deadline": "2027-03-31",
   "confidence": 0.55,
   "outcome": null,
   "gradedIn": null,
   "status": "open"
  },
  {
   "id": "W03-2",
   "issue": 3,
   "issueDate": "2026-10-10",
   "issueUrl": "https://harryfloyd.substack.com/p/openai-fired-three-safety-researchers",
   "story": "Utah steps doctors back",
   "call": "by 31 March 2027, Utah or Nolla Health will announce that Nolla's AI has moved past its first stage, sending prescriptions without a doctor checking each one beforehand. That takes at least 100 patients and four weeks, at least 95% agreement, a clean safety record and the state's written sign-off, which Doctronic's Utah pilot still lacks after almost a year.",
   "resolves": "2027-03-31",
   "deadline": "2027-03-31",
   "confidence": 0.1,
   "outcome": null,
   "gradedIn": null,
   "status": "open"
  },
  {
   "id": "W03-3",
   "issue": 3,
   "issueDate": "2026-10-10",
   "issueUrl": "https://harryfloyd.substack.com/p/openai-fired-three-safety-researchers",
   "story": "Nuclear upgrades or restarts",
   "call": "by 31 March 2027, Microsoft or Meta will announce a new deal that pays for new output at an existing US nuclear plant, through an upgrade or a restart. Amazon and Google each announced one within a week of each other. Microsoft and Meta signed theirs earlier, and those don't count.",
   "resolves": "2027-03-31",
   "deadline": "2027-03-31",
   "confidence": 0.4,
   "outcome": null,
   "gradedIn": null,
   "status": "open"
  },
  {
   "id": "W03-4",
   "issue": 3,
   "issueDate": "2026-10-10",
   "issueUrl": "https://harryfloyd.substack.com/p/openai-fired-three-safety-researchers",
   "story": "Public ad-safety rate",
   "call": "by 30 June 2027, DoubleVerify, Integral Ad Science or OpenAI will publish the share of live ChatGPT ads that DoubleVerify or Integral Ad Science measured as brand-safe or suitable, or as failing. Results from a test environment won't count. OpenAI says its pilots are in development, and Integral Ad Science's is a closed pilot that reports to the advertisers taking part.",
   "resolves": "2027-06-30",
   "deadline": "2027-06-30",
   "confidence": 0.3,
   "outcome": null,
   "gradedIn": null,
   "status": "open"
  },
  {
   "id": "W03-5",
   "issue": 3,
   "issueDate": "2026-10-10",
   "issueUrl": "https://harryfloyd.substack.com/p/openai-fired-three-safety-researchers",
   "story": "US reporting deadline",
   "call": "by 31 March 2027, the White House or a US federal agency will publish a time limit, in hours or days, for AI companies to disclose incidents involving their models. \"Immediately\" won't count, and nor will a general cyber-reporting rule that doesn't name AI models. A recommendation or a bill won't count either; it has to be a requirement the companies must meet. The Force has called disclosure not optional, named no number and set no penalty.",
   "resolves": "2027-03-31",
   "deadline": "2027-03-31",
   "confidence": 0.2,
   "outcome": null,
   "gradedIn": null,
   "status": "open"
  }
 ]
}