{
 "ledger": {
  "title": "Claim Ledger: Confidently Wrong",
  "url": "https://durabilitycurve.com/claims/confidently-wrong/",
  "essay": {
   "title": "Confidently Wrong",
   "url": "https://durabilitycurve.com/blog/confidently-wrong/",
   "published": "2026-08-23"
  },
  "last_checked": "2026-08-22",
  "format": "current",
  "counts": {
   "claims": 11,
   "by_status": {
    "VERIFIED": 10,
    "REPORTED": 1
   },
   "verified_at_primary": 10,
   "removed": 0
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "attribution": "The Durability Curve (Harry Floyd), https://durabilitycurve.com/claims/confidently-wrong/"
 },
 "rows": [
  {
   "id": "1",
   "url": "https://durabilitycurve.com/claims/confidently-wrong/#c-1",
   "status": "VERIFIED",
   "status_label": "Verified",
   "removed": false,
   "claim": "Reinhart & Rogoff (2010) reported that above 90% debt-to-GDP, average real growth was −0.1%",
   "quote": "\"median growth rates fall by ... and average (i.e., mean) growth rates fall considerably more\" with the above-90% mean at −0.1%",
   "removal_reason": "",
   "source": "Reinhart & Rogoff, Growth in a Time of Debt (AER P&P)",
   "source_url": "https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/rogoff/files/growth_in_time_debt_aer.pdf",
   "locator": "Table 1 / §II",
   "date_read": "2026-08-22"
  },
  {
   "id": "2",
   "url": "https://durabilitycurve.com/claims/confidently-wrong/#c-2",
   "status": "VERIFIED",
   "status_label": "Verified",
   "removed": false,
   "claim": "The 90% figure was used to justify austerity, cited by Paul Ryan's budget and by the European Commission",
   "quote": "\"Both Paul Ryan ... and Olli Rehn ... invoked the 90 percent threshold\"",
   "removal_reason": "",
   "source": "Krugman, How the Case for Austerity Has Crumbled (NYRB)",
   "source_url": "https://www.nybooks.com/articles/2013/06/06/how-case-austerity-has-crumbled/",
   "locator": "Body",
   "date_read": "2026-08-22"
  },
  {
   "id": "3",
   "url": "https://durabilitycurve.com/claims/confidently-wrong/#c-3",
   "status": "VERIFIED",
   "status_label": "Verified",
   "removed": false,
   "claim": "Herndon (a UMass grad student), Ash & Pollin obtained the spreadsheet and found the result rested on three faults",
   "quote": "\"a combination of coding errors, selective exclusion of available data, and unconventional weighting of summary statistics\"",
   "removal_reason": "",
   "source": "Herndon, Ash & Pollin, PERI Working Paper 322",
   "source_url": "https://peri.umass.edu/publication/does-high-public-debt-consistently-stifle-economic-growth-a-critique-of-reinhart-and-rogoff/",
   "locator": "Abstract",
   "date_read": "2026-08-22"
  },
  {
   "id": "4",
   "url": "https://durabilitycurve.com/claims/confidently-wrong/#c-4",
   "status": "VERIFIED",
   "status_label": "Verified",
   "removed": false,
   "claim": "The Excel formula excluded five countries (Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark); corrected average growth above 90% debt was +2.2%",
   "quote": "\"the average real GDP growth rate for countries carrying a public debt-to-GDP ratio of over 90 percent is actually 2.2 percent, not −0.1 percent\"",
   "removal_reason": "",
   "source": "Herndon, Ash & Pollin, PERI WP 322",
   "source_url": "https://peri.umass.edu/publication/does-high-public-debt-consistently-stifle-economic-growth-a-critique-of-reinhart-and-rogoff/",
   "locator": "Abstract / §III",
   "date_read": "2026-08-22"
  },
  {
   "id": "5",
   "url": "https://durabilitycurve.com/claims/confidently-wrong/#c-5",
   "status": "VERIFIED",
   "status_label": "Verified",
   "removed": false,
   "claim": "People stop cross-checking automated output; complacency and bias appear in experts and are not eliminated by training or warnings",
   "quote": "\"automation-induced complacency ... found in both naïve and expert participants and cannot be overcome with simple practice\"; bias \"cannot be prevented by training or instructions\"",
   "removal_reason": "",
   "source": "Parasuraman & Manzey, Complacency and Bias in Human Use of Automation, Human Factors 52(3)",
   "source_url": "https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0018720810376055",
   "locator": "Abstract / §Integration",
   "date_read": "2026-08-22"
  },
  {
   "id": "6",
   "url": "https://durabilitycurve.com/claims/confidently-wrong/#c-6",
   "status": "VERIFIED",
   "status_label": "Verified",
   "removed": false,
   "claim": "Knight & Leveson (1986) had 27 programmers write the same program from one spec, ran each version on about one million inputs, and found failures were correlated far beyond independence (rejected at the 99% confidence level)",
   "quote": "\"27 versions of a program ... executed on one million randomly-generated inputs ... the hypothesis ... that the ... versions fail independently ... was rejected at the 99% confidence level\"",
   "removal_reason": "",
   "source": "Knight & Leveson, An Experimental Evaluation of the Assumption of Independence in Multiversion Programming, IEEE TSE SE-12(1)",
   "source_url": "https://www.csc.kth.se/utbildning/kth/kurser/DA2210/vettig13/Seminarier/KnightLeveson.pdf",
   "locator": "Abstract / §Results",
   "date_read": "2026-08-22"
  },
  {
   "id": "7",
   "url": "https://durabilitycurve.com/claims/confidently-wrong/#c-7",
   "status": "VERIFIED",
   "status_label": "Verified",
   "removed": false,
   "claim": "Desirable difficulties (spacing, interleaving, generation, self-testing) build durable skill, and are desirable only if the learner can meet them",
   "quote": "\"If ... the learner does not have the background knowledge or skills to respond to them successfully, they become undesirable difficulties\"",
   "removal_reason": "",
   "source": "Bjork & Bjork, Making Things Hard on Yourself, But in a Good Way (2011)",
   "source_url": "https://bjorklab.psych.ucla.edu/research/",
   "locator": "Body",
   "date_read": "2026-08-22"
  },
  {
   "id": "8",
   "url": "https://durabilitycurve.com/claims/confidently-wrong/#c-8",
   "status": "VERIFIED",
   "status_label": "Verified",
   "removed": false,
   "claim": "Bainbridge (1983): automating a task leaves the operator the parts too hard to automate, and less practised at the skills they demand",
   "quote": "\"the designer who tries to eliminate the operator still leaves the operator to do the tasks which the designer cannot think how to automate\"",
   "removal_reason": "",
   "source": "Bainbridge, Ironies of Automation, Automatica 19(6)",
   "source_url": "https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/0005109883900468",
   "locator": "p.775",
   "date_read": "2026-08-22"
  },
  {
   "id": "9",
   "url": "https://durabilitycurve.com/claims/confidently-wrong/#c-9",
   "status": "VERIFIED",
   "status_label": "Verified",
   "removed": false,
   "claim": "Capt. Warren VanderBurgh's 1997 American Airlines training talk named \"children of the magenta line\"; by the airline's own reckoning most of the automation-related trouble studied traced to automation mismanagement",
   "quote": "\"Children of the Magenta (Line)\", AA training, ~April 1997; ~68% of reviewed events traced to automation mismanagement (softened in-body to \"most\")",
   "removal_reason": "",
   "source": "VanderBurgh, Children of the Magenta Line (AA training); AirFacts retrospective",
   "source_url": "https://airfactsjournal.com/2020/09/stepping-down-in-automation-the-real-lesson-for-children-of-the-magenta-line/",
   "locator": "Retrospective",
   "date_read": "2026-08-22"
  },
  {
   "id": "10",
   "url": "https://durabilitycurve.com/claims/confidently-wrong/#c-10",
   "status": "VERIFIED",
   "status_label": "Verified",
   "removed": false,
   "claim": "AF447 (2009): pitot icing → unreliable airspeed → autopilot disengaged → nose held up → unrecognised stall; BEA cited crew-coordination breakdown and absence of manual-handling training at altitude among causes",
   "quote": "\"the absence of training, at high altitude, in manual aeroplane handling and in the procedure for unreliable airspeed\"; CRM \"degraded\"",
   "removal_reason": "",
   "source": "BEA final report on AF447 (2012), via IEEE Spectrum / Aviation Safety",
   "source_url": "https://spectrum.ieee.org/air-france-flight-447-crash-caused-by-a-combination-of-factors",
   "locator": "Final report summary",
   "date_read": "2026-08-22"
  },
  {
   "id": "11",
   "url": "https://durabilitycurve.com/claims/confidently-wrong/#c-11",
   "status": "REPORTED",
   "status_label": "Reported",
   "removed": false,
   "claim": "Verifying a completed solution is generally far cheaper than producing one (the P vs NP intuition; Sudoku as the illustration)",
   "quote": "verifying a candidate solution is easy while finding one is hard — the defining property of NP",
   "removal_reason": "",
   "source": "Clay Mathematics Institute, P vs NP",
   "source_url": "https://www.claymath.org/millennium/p-vs-np/",
   "locator": "Problem statement",
   "date_read": "2026-08-22"
  }
 ]
}