--- title: "Claim Ledger: Amazon Shut Out Meta's Agent. Shopify Gave It Shop Pay." description: "Also this week: an OpenAI agent inside an Australian government portal, another supplier handing a big customer the right to buy its stock, and six calls I've put a number on." author: "Harry Floyd" publication: "The Durability Curve" canonical: "https://durabilitycurve.com/claims/amazon-shut-out-metas-agent/" essay: "https://durabilitycurve.com/blog/amazon-shut-out-metas-agent/" substack: "https://harryfloyd.substack.com/p/amazon-shut-out-metas-agent" published: "2026-09-26" ledger_date: "2026-10-07" claims: 33 removed_before_publication: 0 --- # Claim Ledger: Amazon Shut Out Meta's Agent. Shopify Gave It Shop Pay. *Also this week: an OpenAI agent inside an Australian government portal, another supplier handing a big customer the right to buy its stock, and six calls I've put a number on.* Essay: https://durabilitycurve.com/blog/amazon-shut-out-metas-agent/ Ledger (canonical, cite this): https://durabilitycurve.com/claims/amazon-shut-out-metas-agent/ Published 2026-09-26 · last verified 2026-10-07 ## The evidence, row by row Labels: VERIFIED = checked against the primary source itself by a checker who did not draft the piece, usually with the exact words, where they sit and the date read · EXECUTED = a run or observation done for the piece (code, a query, a count, or a check made live in an app); the claim is what it returned; run records are not published · CHECKED = checked against its source by a separate checker in the older ledger format, which recorded no quote, locator or date · REPORTED = not verified word for word against a primary source (secondary, not openable in full, or supported only in part); the essay words it accordingly · STRUCK = drafted, checked and removed before publication · EXCLUDED = considered and deliberately left out. ### AM1. At its Connect event, Meta said Muse, its personal AI agent, can now operate any app on a person's Mac, with their permission. - Status: VERIFIED (read 2026-10-07) - Row link: https://durabilitycurve.com/claims/amazon-shut-out-metas-agent/#c-AM1 - Quote: With your permission, Muse can now drive any app on your Mac. - Source: Meta, "Everything We Announced at Meta Connect 2026", 23 September 2026, § Take Your Muse Everywhere You Go, item "Muse for Mac update" - URL: https://www.meta.com/blog/meta-connect-2026-everything-we-announced/ ### AM2. Meta said Muse will get its own email address and will come to Meta's AI glasses in the coming months. - Status: VERIFIED (read 2026-10-07) - Row link: https://durabilitycurve.com/claims/amazon-shut-out-metas-agent/#c-AM2 - Quote: In the coming months we're bringing Muse to our AI glasses … Muse will have its own email address - Source: Meta, "Everything We Announced at Meta Connect 2026", 23 September 2026, § Take Your Muse Everywhere You Go, items "Muse on AI glasses" and "Muse gets its own email address" - URL: https://www.meta.com/blog/meta-connect-2026-everything-we-announced/ ### AM3. Meta said Muse launched with access to the entire Shopify catalogue, and that it is adding retailers including Walmart and Best Buy, plus Shop Pay and PayPal for payments. - Status: VERIFIED (read 2026-10-07) - Row link: https://durabilitycurve.com/claims/amazon-shut-out-metas-agent/#c-AM3 - Quote: We launched with … access to the entire Shopify catalogue. … we’re adding Walmart, Best Buy, … plus Shop Pay and PayPal for payments. - Source: Meta Newsroom, "The Biggest News From Connect 2026", 24 September 2026, Item "More connectors for Muse" (the same paragraph appears on Meta's Connect blog post of 23 September) - URL: https://about.fb.com/news/2026/09/the-biggest-news-from-connect-2026/ ### AM4. Meta says credentials a person shares with Muse go into secure storage, which Muse can use without seeing them. - Status: VERIFIED (read 2026-10-07) - Row link: https://durabilitycurve.com/claims/amazon-shut-out-metas-agent/#c-AM4 - Quote: Any credentials a person shares with Muse go into secure storage, so Muse can use them without seeing them. - Source: Meta Newsroom, "Introducing Muse: The World's First Personal AI Agent Built for Everyone", 8 September 2026 (page updated 30 September 2026), § How It Works, paragraph beginning "Muse has no visibility" - URL: https://about.fb.com/news/2026/09/introducing-muse-personal-ai-agent/ ### AM5. Shopify's chief executive, Tobi Lütke, announced a partnership with Muse to enable checkout with Shop Pay on all Shopify stores. - Status: VERIFIED (read 2026-10-07) - Row link: https://durabilitycurve.com/claims/amazon-shut-out-metas-agent/#c-AM5 - Quote: We are excited to announce we are partnering deeply with Muse to enable agentic checkout with Shop Pay on all Shopify stores - Source: Tobi Lütke (@tobi), chief executive of Shopify, post on X, 21 September 2026, Post text; timestamp 21 Sept 2026 - URL: https://x.com/tobi/status/2102090718546198790 ### AM6. The incident began on 18 June 2026, when OpenAI's research team used an internal model to research public medicine spending, according to Australia's Prime Minister. - Status: VERIFIED (read 2026-10-07) - Row link: https://durabilitycurve.com/claims/amazon-shut-out-metas-agent/#c-AM6 - Quote: On June 18, OpenAI's research team used an internal model to conduct internet based research into public medicine spending. - Source: Prime Minister of Australia, Anthony Albanese, "Press conference - New York", transcript dated Thursday 24 September 2026, Prime Minister's answer to the question on how many Australians were affected - URL: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/press-conference-new-york ### AM7. The agent found a way round repeated blocks on the Medicare statistics portal and accessed public and non-public information in it. - Status: VERIFIED (read 2026-10-07) - Row link: https://durabilitycurve.com/claims/amazon-shut-out-metas-agent/#c-AM7 - Quote: After encountering repeated blocks … The AI agent found a way around those blocks. … It accessed public and non-public information within the portal - Source: Prime Minister of Australia, Anthony Albanese, "Press conference - New York", transcript dated Thursday 24 September 2026, Prime Minister's answer to the question on how many Australians were affected - URL: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/press-conference-new-york ### AM8. Services Australia advises that the agent also wrote files to the internal server. - Status: VERIFIED (read 2026-10-07) - Row link: https://durabilitycurve.com/claims/amazon-shut-out-metas-agent/#c-AM8 - Quote: Services Australia also advises that it engaged, in order to do this, it engaged in writing files as well to the internal server - Source: Prime Minister of Australia, Anthony Albanese, "Press conference - New York", transcript dated Thursday 24 September 2026, Prime Minister's answer to the question on how many Australians were affected - URL: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/press-conference-new-york ### AM9. OpenAI's first notice to the Australian government came on 10 September, as an email to a public mailbox. - Status: VERIFIED (read 2026-10-07) - Row link: https://durabilitycurve.com/claims/amazon-shut-out-metas-agent/#c-AM9 - Quote: it took until 10 September before there was any notification at all. And the notification was an email sent to just the public mailbox. - Source: Prime Minister of Australia, Anthony Albanese, "Press conference - New York", transcript dated Thursday 24 September 2026, Prime Minister's answer to the question on whether the problem was the delay or the manner of notice - URL: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/press-conference-new-york ### AM10. No personal information is believed to have been accessed, and the Prime Minister announced a taskforce to review the incident. - Status: VERIFIED (read 2026-10-07) - Row link: https://durabilitycurve.com/claims/amazon-shut-out-metas-agent/#c-AM10 - Quote: No personal information is believed to have been accessed at this stage, but investigations are ongoing. … announcing the establishment of a taskforce - Source: Prime Minister of Australia, Anthony Albanese, "Press conference - New York", transcript dated Thursday 24 September 2026, Opening statement, first and second paragraphs - URL: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/press-conference-new-york ### AM11. The Prime Minister said three other systems may have been affected, and that the incident will inform the government's AI standards legislation. - Status: VERIFIED (read 2026-10-07) - Row link: https://durabilitycurve.com/claims/amazon-shut-out-metas-agent/#c-AM11 - Quote: aware as well of three other systems that may be impacted … insights from this incident will inform the development of our government … AI standards legislation - Source: Prime Minister of Australia, Anthony Albanese, "Press conference - New York", transcript dated Thursday 24 September 2026, Opening statement, second paragraph (legislation) · answer naming AIHW, NSW BOCSAR and the Victorian Department of Health (three systems) - URL: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/press-conference-new-york ### AM12. Anthropic committed about $11.6 billion to Akamai over seven years, with room to expand by up to $9 billion more. - Status: VERIFIED (read 2026-10-07) - Row link: https://durabilitycurve.com/claims/amazon-shut-out-metas-agent/#c-AM12 - Quote: Anthropic for $11.6 billion of contractual commitment over seven years … expansion of the relationship by up to an additional $9 billion - Source: Akamai Technologies, Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1 (press release), 24 September 2026, Paragraph 1 (dateline) · second bullet - URL: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1086222/000119312526401048/d288154dex991.htm ### AM13. Akamai estimates the capital spending related to the commitment at about $5.5 billion. - Status: VERIFIED (read 2026-10-07) - Row link: https://durabilitycurve.com/claims/amazon-shut-out-metas-agent/#c-AM13 - Quote: capital expenditures related to today’s $11.6 billion commitment are estimated to be approximately $5.5 billion - Source: Akamai Technologies, Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1 (press release), 24 September 2026, Paragraph beginning "Total capital expenditures" - URL: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1086222/000119312526401048/d288154dex991.htm ### AM14. Akamai expects its 2026 capital spending to rise by about $1.7 billion to buy supply-chain components, including memory, in advance. - Status: VERIFIED (read 2026-10-07) - Row link: https://durabilitycurve.com/claims/amazon-shut-out-metas-agent/#c-AM14 - Quote: an increase of approximately $1.7 billion in capital expenditures in 2026 to secure and pre-purchase critical supply chain components, including memory - Source: Akamai Technologies, Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1 (press release), 24 September 2026, Paragraph beginning "Total capital expenditures" - URL: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1086222/000119312526401048/d288154dex991.htm ### AM15. Akamai issued Anthropic a warrant for up to about 5% of its common stock, at an exercise price of $111.33 per common share. - Status: VERIFIED (read 2026-10-07) - Row link: https://durabilitycurve.com/claims/amazon-shut-out-metas-agent/#c-AM15 - Quote: warrant to Anthropic for … up to approximately 5% of Akamai’s common stock outstanding, at an exercise price of $111.33 per share of common stock - Source: Akamai Technologies, Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1 (press release), 24 September 2026, Paragraph beginning "As part of the increased strategic alignment" - URL: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1086222/000119312526401048/d288154dex991.htm ### AM16. The warrant's first tranche, 40% of it, vests on Anthropic's first payment under Project Plan 3. - Status: VERIFIED (read 2026-10-07) - Row link: https://durabilitycurve.com/claims/amazon-shut-out-metas-agent/#c-AM16 - Quote: the first tranche representing 40% of the Warrant Shares, upon the first payment by Anthropic … to the Company under Project Plan 3 - Source: Akamai Technologies, Form 8-K, Item 1.01, filed 24 September 2026, Item 1.01, § Warrant Agreement, paragraph beginning "The Warrant will vest" - URL: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1086222/000119312526401048/d288154d8k.htm ### AM17. Each further $3 billion of cloud services Anthropic buys vests about 1% more of Akamai's common stock. - Status: VERIFIED (read 2026-10-07) - Row link: https://durabilitycurve.com/claims/amazon-shut-out-metas-agent/#c-AM17 - Quote: Each additional $3 billion purchase of cloud services … will result in the vesting of approximately 1% of Akamai’s common stock outstanding. - Source: Akamai Technologies, Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1 (press release), 24 September 2026, Paragraph beginning "As part of the increased strategic alignment" - URL: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1086222/000119312526401048/d288154dex991.htm ### AM18. Anthropic may end each project plan on notice of a material outage, subject to conditions. - Status: VERIFIED (read 2026-10-07) - Row link: https://durabilitycurve.com/claims/amazon-shut-out-metas-agent/#c-AM18 - Quote: Anthropic may terminate each Project Plan upon notice of a material outage, subject to certain conditions. - Source: Akamai Technologies, Form 8-K, Item 1.01, filed 24 September 2026, Item 1.01, paragraph beginning "The Company may terminate the Anthropic MSA" - URL: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1086222/000119312526401048/d288154d8k.htm ### AM19. In Project Swap, a book-trading market with 201 Anthropic employees, Claude's ranking of each person's books agreed with the person's own on 61% of pairs, against 50% for random guessing. - Status: VERIFIED (read 2026-10-07) - Row link: https://durabilitycurve.com/claims/amazon-shut-out-metas-agent/#c-AM19 - Quote: a barter economy with 201 Anthropic employees … Claude’s ordering agreed with theirs 61% of the time (where random guessing would achieve 50%) - Source: Anthropic, "Project Swap: What happens when agents trade for us?", 24 September 2026, § Why we did this · § How well Claude guesses preferences - URL: https://www.anthropic.com/research/project-swap ### AM20. Working from Claude's imprecise rankings caused 85% of the shortfall from the best possible outcome; the trading itself caused the other 15%. - Status: VERIFIED (read 2026-10-07) - Row link: https://durabilitycurve.com/claims/amazon-shut-out-metas-agent/#c-AM20 - Quote: working from Claude’s imprecise rankings accounts for a majority (85%) of the shortfall … sending agents into a “free-for-all” trading floor accounts for the remaining 15% - Source: Anthropic, "Project Swap: What happens when agents trade for us?", 24 September 2026, § The information powering the market limited outcomes - URL: https://www.anthropic.com/research/project-swap ### AM21. Judged on Claude's own rankings, the model an agent ran on made more difference to its outcomes than the instructions it was given. - Status: VERIFIED (read 2026-10-07) - Row link: https://durabilitycurve.com/claims/amazon-shut-out-metas-agent/#c-AM21 - Quote: the model an agent ran on made more of a difference to its negotiating outcomes than the instructions we gave it - Source: Anthropic, "Project Swap: What happens when agents trade for us?", 24 September 2026, § Summary · § On Claude’s own rankings, model choice makes a difference - URL: https://www.anthropic.com/research/project-swap ### AM22. Participants would let an agent control about 30% of their yearly book budget, against about 40% for a well-read friend. - Status: VERIFIED (read 2026-10-07) - Row link: https://durabilitycurve.com/claims/amazon-shut-out-metas-agent/#c-AM22 - Quote: The average answer was about 30%. … what share of their budget they would hand over to a well-read friend … The average answer was about 40%. - Source: Anthropic, "Project Swap: What happens when agents trade for us?", 24 September 2026, § People generally liked their books, and would give an agent a third of their yearly book budget - URL: https://www.anthropic.com/research/project-swap ### AM23. Anthropic released Claude Opus 5.5 at $4 per million input tokens and $20 per million output tokens, 20% less than Opus 5. - Status: VERIFIED (read 2026-10-07) - Row link: https://durabilitycurve.com/claims/amazon-shut-out-metas-agent/#c-AM23 - Quote: introducing Claude Opus 5.5 … Input and output tokens are $4 and $20 per million, 20% less than Opus 5. - Source: Anthropic, "Introducing Claude Opus 5.5", 22 September 2026, Opening paragraph · "Cost and speed" paragraph · pricing table - URL: https://www.anthropic.com/claude-opus-5-5 ### AM24. Anthropic says the new model's costs come out 40% lower than Opus 5's because it costs less per token and uses fewer tokens per task. - Status: VERIFIED (read 2026-10-07) - Row link: https://durabilitycurve.com/claims/amazon-shut-out-metas-agent/#c-AM24 - Quote: It costs less per token than Opus 5 and uses fewer tokens per task, which nets out to a 40% drop in costs. - Source: Anthropic, "Introducing Claude Opus 5.5", 22 September 2026, § Performance and cost-effectiveness - URL: https://www.anthropic.com/claude-opus-5-5 ### AM25. Anthropic attributes the lower price of Opus 5.5 to its lower cost to serve. - Status: VERIFIED (read 2026-10-07) - Row link: https://durabilitycurve.com/claims/amazon-shut-out-metas-agent/#c-AM25 - Quote: Opus 5.5 requires less compute to serve than Opus 5, and its pricing reflects that. - Source: Anthropic, "Introducing Claude Opus 5.5", 22 September 2026, "Cost and speed" paragraph - URL: https://www.anthropic.com/claude-opus-5-5 ### AM26. OpenAI priced GPT-6 Sol at $2 per million input tokens and $10 per million output, down from $4 and $20 for GPT-5.6 Sol, and GPT-6 Luna at $0.10 and $0.50, down from $0.20 and $1.20. - Status: VERIFIED (read 2026-10-07) - Row link: https://durabilitycurve.com/claims/amazon-shut-out-metas-agent/#c-AM26 - Quote: GPT‑5.6 Sol → GPT‑6 Sol $4 → $2 $20 → $10 … GPT‑5.6 Luna → GPT‑6 Luna $0.20 → $0.10 $1.20 → $0.50 - Source: OpenAI, "Introducing GPT-6 Sol and Luna", 22 September 2026, Table "GPT-6 API pricing" (prices per 1 million tokens; columns Input, Output) - URL: https://openai.com/index/introducing-gpt-6-sol-and-luna/ ### AM27. OpenAI attributes the cut to improvements in caching and inference that lower its cost to serve the models. - Status: VERIFIED (read 2026-10-07) - Row link: https://durabilitycurve.com/claims/amazon-shut-out-metas-agent/#c-AM27 - Quote: Improvements in caching and inference let us serve these models at lower cost, and we’re passing those savings directly on - Source: OpenAI, "Introducing GPT-6 Sol and Luna", 22 September 2026, Paragraph above the pricing table - URL: https://openai.com/index/introducing-gpt-6-sol-and-luna/ ### AM28. Anthropic says Opus 5.5, like Fable 5.1, comes with its watermarking measures to comply with the EU AI Act. - Status: VERIFIED (read 2026-10-07) - Row link: https://durabilitycurve.com/claims/amazon-shut-out-metas-agent/#c-AM28 - Quote: As with Fable 5.1, Opus 5.5 comes with our watermarking measures to comply with the EU AI Act - Source: Anthropic, "Introducing Claude Opus 5.5", 22 September 2026, § Data retention and compliance - URL: https://www.anthropic.com/claude-opus-5-5 ### AM29. Anthropic says future Claude models will generate watermarked text, and that it is adding watermarking to older models over the coming months. - Status: VERIFIED (read 2026-10-07) - Row link: https://durabilitycurve.com/claims/amazon-shut-out-metas-agent/#c-AM29 - Quote: Future Claude models will generate text that contains a watermark. … working to add watermarking for those models … over the coming months - Source: Anthropic, "How Claude's text watermarking works", Opening paragraph · § What about older Claude models? - URL: https://www.anthropic.com/news/claude-text-watermark ### AM30. Anthropic's watermark detection API is a private preview, available to eligible organisations as required under EU law. - Status: VERIFIED (read 2026-10-07) - Row link: https://durabilitycurve.com/claims/amazon-shut-out-metas-agent/#c-AM30 - Quote: We are releasing a detection API in private preview. It is currently available to eligible organizations as required under EU law - Source: Anthropic, "How Claude's text watermarking works", § How do I check if a piece of text was written by Claude? - URL: https://www.anthropic.com/news/claude-text-watermark ### AM31. Google says every audio clip its Gemini Audio models generate is watermarked with SynthID. - Status: VERIFIED (read 2026-10-07) - Row link: https://durabilitycurve.com/claims/amazon-shut-out-metas-agent/#c-AM31 - Quote: every audio clip generated by our Gemini Audio models is watermarked with SynthID - Source: Google, "Gemini 3.8 text-to-speech says hello" (Gemini 3.8 Flash TTS and Flash-Lite TTS), 23 September 2026, § Build with trust, consent, and transparency - URL: https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/models-and-research/gemini-models/gemini-3-8-text-to-speech/ ### AM32. Meta's Muse Realtime Avatar uses Meta Video Seal to embed a durable, invisible watermark in the video it generates. - Status: VERIFIED (read 2026-10-07) - Row link: https://durabilitycurve.com/claims/amazon-shut-out-metas-agent/#c-AM32 - Quote: Muse Realtime Avatar uses Meta Video Seal to embed a durable, invisible watermark throughout generated video - Source: Meta AI Research, "Bringing Your Muse to Life", 23 September 2026, § Building Embodied AI Responsibly - URL: https://research.meta.ai/blog/bringing-your-muse-to-life ### AM33. The Gemini app gives signed-in users a verification tool, including a check of images, video and audio for Google's SynthID watermark. - Status: VERIFIED (read 2026-10-07) - Row link: https://durabilitycurve.com/claims/amazon-shut-out-metas-agent/#c-AM33 - Quote: verification tool available within the Gemini App for signed-in users … SynthID: Uses invisible watermarks to determine if images, videos, and audio were generated or edited - Source: Google, Gemini Apps Help, "Verify AI-generated images, videos, and audio", Opening paragraph · list of checks, item "SynthID" - URL: https://support.google.com/gemini/answer/16722517?hl=en ## Cite - A claim: name the original source (and its locator) first, then the row it was checked in, e.g. ", . Checked in: Claim Ledger, "Amazon Shut Out Meta's Agent. Shopify Gave It Shop Pay.", The Durability Curve, row , https://durabilitycurve.com/claims/amazon-shut-out-metas-agent/#c-." - The essay: Floyd, Harry (2026). Amazon Shut Out Meta's Agent. Shopify Gave It Shop Pay.. The Durability Curve. https://durabilitycurve.com/blog/amazon-shut-out-metas-agent/ - This ledger: Floyd, Harry (2026). Claim Ledger: Amazon Shut Out Meta's Agent. Shopify Gave It Shop Pay.. The Durability Curve. https://durabilitycurve.com/claims/amazon-shut-out-metas-agent/ - Downloads: https://durabilitycurve.com/claims/amazon-shut-out-metas-agent.csv · https://durabilitycurve.com/claims/amazon-shut-out-metas-agent.json Licence: CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Reuse it, quote it or train on it, with credit to The Durability Curve and a link. Open to AI (robots.txt: search=yes, ai-input=yes, ai-train=yes).