Claim ledger

You Cannot Try to Fall Asleep

Sleep is only where you notice it first. Much of what matters works the same way.

Read the essay On Substack Published Tests Law A: Goodhart Corollary

Claims
20
Verified at the primary source
15
Removed before publication
1
Last checked

20 claims: 15 verified, 5 reported. Plus 1 removed before publication, listed at the end.

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What the essay claims

Walking in: "I track my sleep so I can improve it. The score tells me how I did. A bad score means I need to take it more seriously and try harder tonight."

Walking out: "Sleep is not something I do. It is something that happens when I stop trying to do it, and the score recruits attention, intention and effort at exactly the point where all three are the illness. Worse, sleep is not a special case. Most of what makes my life worth having sits in the same category, and I have been quietly installing scoreboards on all of it."

The load-bearing move: Not trackers are bad. A category of goods exists that is destroyed by aiming at it, the category has been named twice independently by people who never cited each other, and a reader can sort their own life with it in ten minutes. The tracker is the most legible instance, not the topic.

The claim ladder

Strongest first.

#ClaimWhose behaviour it measuresWhat it rests onWhat it does not reach
1You cannot fall asleep by trying to. Sleep is automatic and is inhibited by attention to it, explicit intention toward it, and effort at itPeople with persistent psychophysiologic insomnia, as modelled by the field that treats themEspie 2006, a theoretical review that became a treatment model and was revisited in 2023It is a model with clinical support, not a settled physical law. State it as the field's leading account of how insomnia persists, not as arithmetic
2The number can do the damage on its own. Told on waking that a night was poor, when actigraphy says the nights did not differ, daytime function suffers22 people with primary insomnia, over 3 morningsSemler & Harvey 2005Small, and in people who already had insomnia. It shows the feedback is sufficient; it does not size the effect or establish it in the general population
3The effect is not demonstrated in good sleepers. False poor-sleep feedback did not move pre-sleep cognitive arousal or subjective sleep continuity in healthy sleepersHealthy sleepers in one pilotThe disconfirming study, carried on purposeThis rung protects the piece. The honest reading is that the score does its damage to the anxious, who are exactly the people who buy the device to fix it. Any sentence implying universality is a defect
4Measuring an intrinsic activity converts it into work. Doing goes up, enjoyment goes downOrdinary people doing ordinary activities — walking, reading — across six experimentsEtkin 2016Ordinary activities, not clinical states. And it cuts both ways: the same finding says measurement works on the behaviour. For a willable behaviour that trade is often worth taking, and the piece must say so
5Sleep is one member of a category, not a special case. The category was defined before the instruments existedNobody's. A conceptual claim about the structure of certain goodsElster 1981/1983, his own named examplesPhilosophical category, not an empirical result. The generalisation beyond sleep is argued, not measured, and the piece must mark it as the argument it is
6A daily score is an attention–intention–effort machine pointed at an automatic processOne vendor's product design, read from its own documentationRungs 1 and 5 joined. Whoop's Recovery Score is delivered each morning from HRV in slow-wave sleep, resting heart rate, respiratory rate and sleep performance — four things unavailable to the willOne vendor, verified. No census across vendors was run and the piece claims none

What would make it wrong

The premise fails if what people actually score themselves on is dominated by willable behaviours — steps, minutes, pages, sessions — and the unwillable states are a fringe of the market. The check is the headline scores the major devices deliver at wake-up.

Status: partially run. Whoop's Recovery Score is confirmed in the unwillable column, delivered each morning and built from four measures unavailable to the will. Oura's Readiness Score is confirmed by name but its documentation has not been read cleanly.

Second falsifier, on the generalisation: if the by-products category turns out to have been applied to self-tracking somewhere in the literature, the contribution shrinks to the convergence alone. The sweep found nothing, and the sweep is not proof of absence.

The evidence, row by row

Each row is a claim the essay makes, then the evidence recorded for it and the source it was checked against. For verified rows that is usually the exact words, where they sit and the day they were read. The label says how far it was checked.

What the labels mean
Verified
Checked against the primary source itself by a checker who did not draft the piece, usually with the exact words, where they sit and the date read.
Executed
A run or observation done for the piece: code, a query, a count, or a check made live in an app. The claim is what it returned. Run records are not published.
Checked
Checked against its source by a separate checker in the older ledger format, which recorded no quote, locator or date.
Reported
Not verified word for word against a primary source: carried from a secondary source, from one that could not be opened in full, or supported only in part. The essay words it accordingly.
Struck
Drafted, checked and removed before publication. Kept here, crossed out, with the reason.
Excluded
Considered and deliberately left out of the piece. Kept here with the reason.
Sources (10)
  1. Espie 3 rows
  2. Semler & Harvey 3 rows
  3. Robson 3 rows
  4. Etkin 3 rows
  5. Elster 3 rows
  6. Cambridge Core chapter listing 1 row
  7. Baron 1 row
  8. Whoop product documentation 1 row
  9. Brain Sciences 1 row
  10. secondary summary only 1 row
  1. 1 Verified Read

    Sleep normalcy is a relatively automatic process. Consequently it is vulnerable, and may be inhibited, by focused attention and by direct attempts to control its expression

    "The argument is that sleep normalcy is a relatively automatic process. Consequently, it is vulnerable, and may be inhibited, by focused attention and by direct attempts to control its expression."

    Espie, Broomfield, MacMahon, Macphee & Taylor, The attention-intention-effort pathway in the development of psychophysiologic insomnia: a theoretical review, Sleep Medicine Reviews 10(4):215-45, Aug 2006, PMID 16809056, DOI 10.1016/j.smrv.2006.03.002 · abstract, sentences 6-7 · pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

    Link
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    Espie, Broomfield, MacMahon, Macphee & Taylor, The attention-intention-effort pathway in the development of psychophysiologic insomnia: a theoretical review, Sleep Medicine Reviews 10(4):215-45, Aug 2006, PMID 16809056, DOI 10.1016/j.smrv.2006.03.002, abstract, sentences 6-7, https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/16809056/. Checked in: Claim Ledger, "You Cannot Try to Fall Asleep", The Durability Curve, row 1, https://durabilitycurve.com/claims/you-cannot-try-to-fall-asleep/#c-1 (source read 2026-08-02).

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  2. 1b Verified Read

    The model is named the attention-intention-effort pathway, and it is offered as an explanatory model of how psychophysiologic insomnia develops and is maintained

    "This paper proposes an explanatory model, that we call the attention-intention-effort pathway."

    Espie et al. 2006, as above · abstract · pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

    Link
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    Espie, Broomfield, MacMahon, Macphee & Taylor, The attention-intention-effort pathway in the development of psychophysiologic insomnia: a theoretical review, Sleep Medicine Reviews 10(4):215-45, Aug 2006, PMID 16809056, DOI 10.1016/j.smrv.2006.03.002, abstract, https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/16809056/. Checked in: Claim Ledger, "You Cannot Try to Fall Asleep", The Durability Curve, row 1b, https://durabilitycurve.com/claims/you-cannot-try-to-fall-asleep/#c-1b (source read 2026-08-02).

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  3. 1c Verified Read

    Psychophysiologic insomnia is the most common form of persistent primary insomnia, and its behavioural phenotype includes conditioned arousal, sleep-incompatible behaviour and sleep preoccupation

    "Psychophysiologic insomnia (PI) is the most common form of persistent primary insomnia. Its 'behavioral phenotype', comprising elements such as conditioned arousal, sleep-incompatible behavior and sleep preoccupation, has not changed markedly across several generations of diagnostic nosology."

    Espie et al. 2006, as above · abstract, opening · pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

    Link
    Cite

    Espie et al. 2006, as above, abstract, opening, https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/16809056/. Checked in: Claim Ledger, "You Cannot Try to Fall Asleep", The Durability Curve, row 1c, https://durabilitycurve.com/claims/you-cannot-try-to-fall-asleep/#c-1c (source read 2026-08-02).

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  4. 3 Verified Read

    Twenty-two individuals with primary insomnia were given positive or negative feedback about their sleep immediately on waking on three consecutive mornings

    "twenty-two individuals with primary insomnia receiv[ed] positive or negative feedback about their sleep immediately on waking on three consecutive mornings"

    Semler & Harvey, Misperception of sleep can adversely affect daytime functioning in insomnia, Behaviour Research and Therapy 43(7):843–856, 2005, PMID 15896282 · method · pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

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    Semler & Harvey, Misperception of sleep can adversely affect daytime functioning in insomnia, Behaviour Research and Therapy 43(7):843–856, 2005, PMID 15896282, method, https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/15896282/. Checked in: Claim Ledger, "You Cannot Try to Fall Asleep", The Durability Curve, row 3, https://durabilitycurve.com/claims/you-cannot-try-to-fall-asleep/#c-3 (source read 2026-08-02).

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  5. 4 Verified Read

    Objective sleep, by actigraphy, did not differ across the three nights or the two feedback conditions

    "Objective sleep on each of the three nights was estimated by actigraphy and did not differ across the three nights or the two feedback conditions"

    Semler & Harvey 2005 · results · pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

    Link
    Cite

    Semler & Harvey 2005, results, https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/15896282/. Checked in: Claim Ledger, "You Cannot Try to Fall Asleep", The Durability Curve, row 4, https://durabilitycurve.com/claims/you-cannot-try-to-fall-asleep/#c-4 (source read 2026-08-02).

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  6. 5 Verified Read

    Negative feedback was associated with more negative thoughts, sleepiness, monitoring for sleep-related threat, and safety behaviours during the day

    "negative feedback was associated with more negative thoughts, sleepiness, monitoring for sleep-related threat, and safety behaviours during the day, relative to positive feedback"

    Semler & Harvey 2005 · results · pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

    Link
    Cite

    Semler & Harvey 2005, results, https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/15896282/. Checked in: Claim Ledger, "You Cannot Try to Fall Asleep", The Durability Curve, row 5, https://durabilitycurve.com/claims/you-cannot-try-to-fall-asleep/#c-5 (source read 2026-08-02).

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  7. 7 Verified Read

    Fifty-four healthy sleepers were randomly allocated to receive good or poor false sleep feedback in the form of a numerical sleep score, and were told it reflected their habitual sleep

    "A total of 54 healthy sleepers (Mage = 30.19 years; SDage = 12.94 years) were randomly allocated to receive good, or poor, false sleep feedback, in the form of a numerical sleep score. Participants were informed that this feedback was a true reflection of their habitual sleep."

    Robson, Ellis & Elder, Poor false sleep feedback does not affect pre-sleep cognitive arousal or subjective sleep continuity in healthy sleepers: a pilot study, Sleep and Biological Rhythms 20(4):467–472, 2022 · abstract · pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

    Link
    Cite

    Robson, Ellis & Elder, Poor false sleep feedback does not affect pre-sleep cognitive arousal or subjective sleep continuity in healthy sleepers: a pilot study, Sleep and Biological Rhythms 20(4):467–472, 2022, abstract, https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10899903/. Checked in: Claim Ledger, "You Cannot Try to Fall Asleep", The Durability Curve, row 7, https://durabilitycurve.com/claims/you-cannot-try-to-fall-asleep/#c-7 (source read 2026-08-02).

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  8. 8 Verified Read

    In healthy sleepers the false score changed nothing measured

    "There were no significant differences between good and poor feedback groups in terms of pre-sleep cognitive arousal, or subjective sleep continuity, before or after the presentation of the sleep feedback."

    Robson, Ellis & Elder 2022 · abstract · pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

    Link
    Cite

    Robson, Ellis & Elder 2022, abstract, https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10899903/. Checked in: Claim Ledger, "You Cannot Try to Fall Asleep", The Durability Curve, row 8, https://durabilitycurve.com/claims/you-cannot-try-to-fall-asleep/#c-8 (source read 2026-08-02).

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  9. 9 Verified Read

    That study frames itself as being about wearables, not about laboratory deception

    "Modern wearable devices calculate a numerical metric of sleep quality (sleep feedback), which are intended to allow users to monitor and, potentially, improve their sleep."

    Robson, Ellis & Elder 2022 · abstract, first line · pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

    Link
    Cite

    Robson, Ellis & Elder 2022, abstract, first line, https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10899903/. Checked in: Claim Ledger, "You Cannot Try to Fall Asleep", The Durability Curve, row 9, https://durabilitycurve.com/claims/you-cannot-try-to-fall-asleep/#c-9 (source read 2026-08-02).

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  10. 10 Verified Read

    Measurement increases how much of an activity people do and simultaneously reduces how much they enjoy it

    "while measurement increases how much of an activity people do (e.g., walk or read more), it can simultaneously reduce how much people enjoy those activities"

    Etkin, The Hidden Cost of Personal Quantification, Journal of Consumer Research 42(6):967–984, 2016 · abstract · academic.oup.com

    Link
    Cite

    Etkin, The Hidden Cost of Personal Quantification, Journal of Consumer Research 42(6):967–984, 2016, abstract, https://academic.oup.com/jcr/article-abstract/42/6/967/2358309. Checked in: Claim Ledger, "You Cannot Try to Fall Asleep", The Durability Curve, row 10, https://durabilitycurve.com/claims/you-cannot-try-to-fall-asleep/#c-10 (source read 2026-08-02).

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  11. 11 Verified Read

    The mechanism is that attention to output makes an enjoyable activity feel like work, undermining intrinsic motivation

    "By drawing attention to output, measurement can make enjoyable activities feel more like work, which reduces their enjoyment."

    Etkin 2016 · abstract · academic.oup.com

    Link
    Cite

    Etkin 2016, abstract, https://academic.oup.com/jcr/article-abstract/42/6/967/2358309. Checked in: Claim Ledger, "You Cannot Try to Fall Asleep", The Durability Curve, row 11, https://durabilitycurve.com/claims/you-cannot-try-to-fall-asleep/#c-11 (source read 2026-08-02).

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  12. 12 Verified Read

    Etkin's 2016 findings about measuring an activity rest on six experiments

    "Six experiments demonstrate that while measurement increases how much of an activity people do…"

    Etkin 2016 · abstract · academic.oup.com

    Link
    Cite

    Etkin 2016, abstract, https://academic.oup.com/jcr/article-abstract/42/6/967/2358309. Checked in: Claim Ledger, "You Cannot Try to Fall Asleep", The Durability Curve, row 12, https://durabilitycurve.com/claims/you-cannot-try-to-fall-asleep/#c-12 (source read 2026-08-02).

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  13. 13 Verified Read

    A state is essentially a by-product when it can come about as a result of action but cannot be brought about intentionally, because the attempt precludes the state

    "can only come about as by-products of actions undertaken for other ends… can never be brought about intentionally because the very attempt to do so precludes the state one is trying to bring about"

    Elster, Sour Grapes: Studies in the Subversion of Rationality, Cambridge University Press, ch. 2 "States that are essentially by-products", pp. 43–109 · chapter 2 summary · doi.org

    Link
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    Elster, Sour Grapes: Studies in the Subversion of Rationality, Cambridge University Press, ch. 2 "States that are essentially by-products", pp. 43–109, chapter 2 summary, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781316494172.004. Checked in: Claim Ledger, "You Cannot Try to Fall Asleep", The Durability Curve, row 13, https://durabilitycurve.com/claims/you-cannot-try-to-fall-asleep/#c-13 (source read 2026-08-02).

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  14. 14 Verified Read

    Elster names spontaneity as an example of such an inaccessible state

    "I cited spontaneity as an example of such 'inaccessible' states."

    Elster, Sour Grapes ch. 2 · chapter 2 introduction · doi.org

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    Elster, Sour Grapes ch. 2, chapter 2 introduction, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781316494172.004. Checked in: Claim Ledger, "You Cannot Try to Fall Asleep", The Durability Curve, row 14, https://durabilitycurve.com/claims/you-cannot-try-to-fall-asleep/#c-14 (source read 2026-08-02).

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  15. 15 Reported Read

    The self-defeating list includes the desire to forget, to believe, to desire, to sleep, to laugh, and to overcome stuttering

    "the desire to forget, the desire to believe, the desire to desire …, the desire to sleep, the desire to laugh (one cannot tickle oneself), and the desire to overcome stuttering"

    Elster, Sour Grapes ch. 2 / States that are essentially by-products, Social Science Information 20(3), 1981 · ch. 2, as reproduced in secondary summaries · journals.sagepub.com

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    Elster, Sour Grapes ch. 2 / States that are essentially by-products, Social Science Information 20(3), 1981, ch. 2, as reproduced in secondary summaries, https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/053901848102000301. Checked in: Claim Ledger, "You Cannot Try to Fall Asleep", The Durability Curve, row 15, https://durabilitycurve.com/claims/you-cannot-try-to-fall-asleep/#c-15 (source read 2026-08-02).

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  16. 16 Verified Read

    Chapter 2 of Sour Grapes is titled "States that are essentially by-products" and runs pp. 43-109

    "Chapter: 2 ('States that are essentially by-products') · Pages: 43-109"

    Cambridge Core chapter listing · publisher metadata block · doi.org

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    Cambridge Core chapter listing, publisher metadata block, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781316494172.004. Checked in: Claim Ledger, "You Cannot Try to Fall Asleep", The Durability Curve, row 16, https://durabilitycurve.com/claims/you-cannot-try-to-fall-asleep/#c-16 (source read 2026-08-02).

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  17. 17 Reported Read

    Orthosomnia names patients whose pursuit of the sleep score interfered with their sleep, and who trusted the device over the clinician

    Baron, Abbott, Jao, Manalo & Mullen, Orthosomnia: Are Some Patients Taking the Quantified Self Too Far?, Journal of Clinical Sleep Medicine, 2017 · — · jcsm.aasm.org

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    Baron, Abbott, Jao, Manalo & Mullen, Orthosomnia: Are Some Patients Taking the Quantified Self Too Far?, Journal of Clinical Sleep Medicine, 2017, —, https://jcsm.aasm.org/doi/10.5664/jcsm.6472. Checked in: Claim Ledger, "You Cannot Try to Fall Asleep", The Durability Curve, row 17, https://durabilitycurve.com/claims/you-cannot-try-to-fall-asleep/#c-17 (source read 2026-08-02).

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  18. 18 Reported Read

    Whoop's Recovery Score is delivered each morning and is computed from HRV measured during slow-wave sleep, resting heart rate, respiratory rate and sleep performance

    "The Recovery Score (0-100) … a daily readiness indicator that aggregates heart rate variability, resting heart rate and sleep quality … reported each morning after your sleep cycle completes"

    Whoop product documentation · vendor marketing and developer documentation · developer.whoop.com

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    Whoop product documentation, vendor marketing and developer documentation, https://developer.whoop.com/docs/whoop-101/. Checked in: Claim Ledger, "You Cannot Try to Fall Asleep", The Durability Curve, row 18, https://durabilitycurve.com/claims/you-cannot-try-to-fall-asleep/#c-18 (source read 2026-08-02).

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  19. 19 Reported Read

    A 2024 cross-sectional study of 523 adults estimated orthosomnia prevalence at 3–14% depending on definition, with 35.8% of participants regularly using sleep-tracking devices

    — figures from secondary summary; primary not yet opened —

    Brain Sciences, 2024 · — · doaj.org

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    Brain Sciences, 2024, —, https://doaj.org/article/50f708de43bd4086a44688d71f87f333. Checked in: Claim Ledger, "You Cannot Try to Fall Asleep", The Durability Curve, row 19, https://durabilitycurve.com/claims/you-cannot-try-to-fall-asleep/#c-19 (source read 2026-08-02).

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  20. 20 Reported Read

    A validated Bergen Orthosomnia Scale was published in 2025

    secondary summary only · —

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    secondary summary only, —. Checked in: Claim Ledger, "You Cannot Try to Fall Asleep", The Durability Curve, row 20, https://durabilitycurve.com/claims/you-cannot-try-to-fall-asleep/#c-20 (source read 2026-08-02).

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Removed before publication

Claims that were drafted, checked and taken out, or considered and left out. The essay does not make them; they stay here with the reason.

  1. 2 Struck

    The three components act in concert and hierarchically to turn acute stress-induced insomnia into the persistent self-perpetuating kind

    Why: This wording is not in the 2006 abstract; it came from a secondary summary of the 2023 revisit, which is paywalled (HTTP 402) and was not read. The body uses rows 1/1b/1c instead and makes no claim about hierarchy or about the acute-to-chronic transition

Cite and reuse

A single claim
Use the row's Cite button. It names the original source first, then this row, which carries its own link.
This ledger
Floyd, Harry (2026). Claim Ledger: You Cannot Try to Fall Asleep. The Durability Curve. https://durabilitycurve.com/claims/you-cannot-try-to-fall-asleep/
The essay
Floyd, Harry (2026). You Cannot Try to Fall Asleep. The Durability Curve. https://durabilitycurve.com/blog/you-cannot-try-to-fall-asleep/

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